by Daniel Liden
2010 Census Return Rates and 2020 Low Response Scores in Las Vegas, Reno, and Carson City
Our first two 2020 Census Snapshots show the 2010 census mail return rates and the 2020 low response scores by census tract for the whole state of Nevada. Nevada’s cities, however, have many small census tracts that are difficult to see on the statewide maps. This snapshot depicts the 2010 census mail return rates and 2020 census low response scores for census tracts in and around Las Vegas, Reno, and Carson City.
The 2010 mail return rates (shown in the purple maps) are the percentages of non-blank census forms returned by occupied households that received them. The low response score (LRS) (shown in the red maps) can be interpreted as a predicted “non-return rate,” or the percentage of households expected not to respond to the 2020 census online, by mail, or by phone. A census tract with a high LRS is expected to respond to the 2020 census at a low rate. In the figures below, the percentages shown are statewide quintiles of mail return rates and low response scores.
Figure 1 shows the mail return rates and low response scores for the Las Vegas metro area. Parts of downtown Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, and areas to the east of the city of Las Vegas are projected to be difficult to count in 2020, while the southern and northwestern parts of the metro area are expected to respond to the 2020 census at higher rates.
Figure 1: Las Vegas
Figure 2 shows Carson City. Most of Carson City’s census tracts had high 2010 census return rates (above 83%). Some tracts near the center of Carson City are projected to respond to the 2020 census at lower rates. The lowest 2020 response rates in Carson City are expected around the New Empire neighborhood. The highest response rates are expected on the west side of Carson City.
Figure 2: Carson City
Figure 3 shows the 2010 mail return rates and 2020 LRSs for the Reno/Sparks area. Some of the lowest response rates are expected in the downtown and midtown neighborhoods. Sparks responded to the 2010 census at relatively high rates and is expected to do the same during the 2020 census.
In general, just as the first two snapshots showed, areas that responded to the 2010 census at high rates are anticipated to respond to the 2020 census at high rates (and vice-versa).
Figure 3: Reno
To interactively explore the 2010 response rates and 2020 LRSs (in addition to many other factors relevant to the 2020 census), check out the Census Bureau’s Response Outreach Area Mapper (ROAM) and CUNY’s Hard to Count (HTC) 2020 map.
The next few census snapshots will explore what exactly make the areas that are expected to respond to the 2020 census at low levels so difficult to count – and what outreach strategies might be effective in these areas.